It’s not the culmination of my life’s work, but it is the culmination of the finding aces series. The premise of this series was to identify pitchers showing traits similar to breakout pitchers from the past and ultimately locate the players who will make that value jump in 2020. We’ve discussed 30+ pitchers in the series (links to all articles at the bottom) since the calendar turned and today, I’m providing my top four pitchers with ADPs outside of the top 120 with SP2 upside for the 2020 fantasy season. There were a few landmarks I was seeking out in my analysis of who can reach this peak aside from them having the data points from our series research:

  • Pitchers who will throw 160 innings – Only 3 pitchers who finished as an SP2 on the 2019 Razzball player rater threw less than this. They either came excruciatingly close to this figure (Jake Odorizzi -159) or won 60%+ of their games started which is highly unlikely to occur (Mike Clevinger and Domingo German).
  • Pitchers on average or better teams – The lowest win total among the 2019 SP2s was 11. Only a single SP2 finisher was on a team that won less than 75 games (Lucas Giolito). Pitchers on bad teams struggle to hit this landmark.
  • Pitchers who will strike out 160+ batters – Only one pitcher completed an SP2 season in 2019 without crossing this threshold (Mike Soroka).
  • Pitchers with a WHIP under 1.24 – More baserunners lead to more runs against. Only one 2019 SP2 had a WHIP over this threshold and his success was largely wins driven (Eduardo Rodriguez).

Here are the final four pitchers that I believe can be aces in 2020:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

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We made it folks. On Sunday, the news flashed a Chicago forecast without a temperature below 40 degrees on it. March brings warmer air, a clock change, a celebration with green, the anniversary of millions of vasectomies, and opening day baseball. With that last one in mind, I released my top 100 starting pitcher rankings365bet 足球比分直播. Rankings bring out a special brand of emotions among fantasy baseball addicts. I’m here to explain as many of my disputed rankings as possible before opening day. I am nothing if not transparent. I’ve detailed six pitchers below that I am significantly higher, or lower, than the market on. In addition, I have linked to every article with a blurb about pitchers in the top 100 that I have written and paraphrased my commentary from a Reddit thread. In the weeks leading up to opening day I will release my top 10 pitching values to complete the finding aces series, a revised version of the top 100, and further commentary on major discrepancies. Feel free to let me know where you would like to see more detailed analysis. I owe a few frequent commenters player blurbs and I haven’t forgotten, just give me a couple of weeks, looking at you Magoo.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
 

I am not a ranker.

I never put players in an official order before writing at Razzball. Last year, MB asked me to provide flex rankings for football. This year, Donkey Teeth asked me to provide top 100 pitcher rankings for baseball. Now all I do with my life is rank players!

My typical draft prep revolved around locating a targeted set of pitchers throughout the draft, and conversely identifying pitchers I had no interest in. The strategy was to draft as many targets as possible and fill in the cracks where my pitching staff was showing weakness to construct a balanced pitching staff. Though I am providing a top 100 list, it remains of the utmost importance to embrace pitching staff construction over drafting based on raw rankings.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
 

This week, I’d like to focus on the benefits of a contrarian mindset. It helps make clear life choices without needing the approval of others. It helps maintain an even approach to the highs and lows of life. Most importantly, it helps in predicting outcomes. One of my favorite contrarian principles is regression to the mean, the philosophy at the heart of this week’s finding aces segment. When I introduced the series and background group of pitchers, the term luck was mentioned regularly. Quantifying luck is a difficult premise. However, in leveraging regression to the mean we can increase our chances. If a pitcher suffered from poor luck in 2019, that same pitcher is more likely to benefit from good luck in the future. We hope that future is the 2020 season.

365bet 足球比分直播In order to identify young pitchers who suffered from poor luck in 2019 I performed the following:

  • Gathered all starting pitchers with over 50 innings pitched in 2019. Thanks, Fangraphs.
  • Removed any pitchers with more than 400 career innings pitched to isolate for Youthful Jumps.
  • Sorted to find only pitchers whose ERA was 0.5 greater than one of FIP, xFIP, or SIERA.
  • Eliminated any pitchers who did not have a metric under 4.5.

The result? 10 pitchers. I’ve removed 5 of those for reasons noted at the bottom. The rest of the group is evaluated below:

Please, blog, may I have some more?
 

Razzball is one of the more incredible communities in fantasy baseball, and the quality of the comments is one of the first places I would point towards for proof. Although after one sentence this seems like a kiss ass article, it is not. This is merely a thank you to commenter LenFuego for the premise of this week’s article. In the first article of the series, I offered Zack Grienke as a bounce-back pitcher of note from 2017.  LenFuego pointed out that Grienke had a handful of poor starts in the 2016 season that anchored his ratios at career highs. Thus, his 2017 bounce back was primarily due to eliminating these outlier starts.

365bet 足球比分直播It is a dangerous task to simply take out the poorest starts in a pitcher’s season. As much as we don’t want them to, the blowups still count. However, I certainly think it is relevant to locate pitchers who had a deceptive 2019 due to a segment of their season, or a single game, not being representative of their year.

This is was my process in identifying a few pitchers who may have had deceptively good 2019s and qualify as a Restored Vet:

Please, blog, may I have some more?
 

K.I.S.S. – Keep It Simple, Stupid.

Is it a corny acronym? No doubt.

Does it have a purpose in fantasy baseball? Absolutely.

365bet 足球比分直播I’m not the smartest person on the planet. There is zero chance I can combine hundreds of metrics into a special formula to conveniently spit out 2020 breakout pitchers. Ask Rudy for that. However, I can break down the game to simple components and use a few metrics at a time. That is exactly what I plan to do in this series for the next month. Keep It Simple, Pat. K.I.S.P.!

Last week, I highlighted a group of pitchers who exceed expectations in the past 3 seasons. Time after time in reviewing these pitchers a commonality was the use of a highly effective secondary pitch. Additionally, the usage of this secondary pitch contributed to a rise in the effectiveness of the player’s fastball. This cohesion leads to the hypothesis of this week’s article, locating exceptional secondary pitches. If a pitcher throws hard with at least one valuable secondary pitch they will generate more strikeouts, more poor swings, and infrequent hard contact.

In order to find players that matched to this premise I did the following:

  • Started with 2019 Fangraphs pitch data and filtered out anyone with less than 50 MLB innings pitched and more than 400 career MLB innings pitched to isolate for Youthful Jumps.
  • Brought in the average fastball velocity for the last two years and removed all pitchers throwing less than 93.4 MPH. This isn’t an arbitrary number; Shane Bieber was the average velocity floor from the Youthful Jump group at 93.4 MPH.
  • Highlighted only players with a (Pitch Type Linear Weights per 100) for a secondary pitch over 0.5 for the 2019 season.

Shockingly, there were only 12 pitchers from the 2019 season who met the criteria. Of those, seven could be removed for various reasons mentioned at the end of the article for clarity. The five pitchers who remain are detailed below:

Please, blog, may I have some more?
 

365bet 足球比分直播Some of you may be saying, “Is this the guy from the football side who is obsessed with defensive pressure rates?” Yes, it is.

Some of you will then ask, “Is this man as funny as Grey?” Sadly, no.

365bet 足球比分直播Everyone will then most definitely ask, “What does this man know about baseball?” Enough to spew 1000+ words per week into WordPress.

365bet 足球比分直播Baseball is far and away my favorite fantasy sport. I’ve been a Razzball consumer since I was a pimple faced teenager. My background with Razzball is important. It explains many of my philosophies, primarily those in regards to pitching. Typically, I wait on starting pitching far later than the norm and complete pre-season prep with that notion in mind. Instead of spending hours sorting top ranked pitchers, I focus in on pitchers who have the highest probabilities of far exceeding expectations.

This concept is at the core of the series, in which the sole purpose is to find the likeliest 2020 breakout pitchers. To start, I will delve into a group of 12 pitchers who exceeded draft day value from the last 3 seasons. Using their backgrounds, I hope to find some cohesion to locate what changed and led to the breakout. Finally, I’ll take those commonalities and locate 2020 pitchers meeting the same criteria to find who is most likely to win us our leagues.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
 

There’s one big question on everyone’s mind: what type of balls will 2020 bring? Will they be wrinkly? Sweaty? Blue? People are wondering about the baseballs, Donkey. 365bet 足球比分直播Oh right, baseballs, thanks random italicized voice!

365bet 足球比分直播Let’s face it, we have no idea what next year’s balls will look like. Hopefully they aren’t engorged, lumpy, or discolored, but we just don’t know. And we won’t know for certain until early April 2020. What we do know is, regardless of how salty next year’s balls taste, there will be a bunch of pitchers drafted early who get hurt or just flat out stink (see: Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Blake Snell, Carlos Carrasco, Jameson Taillion, & Luis Severino from 2019) and there will be lots of pitchers drafted late, or not drafted at all, who sneak into the end of season top 25 starting pitchers (see: Lucas Giolito, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Sonny Gray, Mike Minor, Lance Lynn, Mike Soroka, Domingo German, & Jake Odorizzi from 2019). Grey has almost fully brainwashed me over at his Fade Top Pitchers School of Philosophy and Sexuality. Yes, it’s just as weird as it sounds over there.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
 

Not your Grandfather’s Top 100 Starting Pitchers…

As you may or may not know, Fantasy Master Lothario traveled to the Big Apple this past week. What you definitely don’t know, is why the Champion of Razzball made the cross country trek to the city that never sleeps: Grandpa-Donk’s 92nd birthday festivities. That’s right, Grey Albright and Gramps-Donk are the closest of friends. Have you ever seen Grey and Sweaty Jimmy365bet 足球比分直播 in the same room? Didn’t think so…

As Grey stepped forward to kiss the hoof and present the ageless-donk with a priceless phallic statue specially commissioned by this season’s glass blowing contestant Annette Sheppard, Gramps leaned in and whispered the name Kyle Gibson” into Sweaty Jimmy, I mean Grey’s ear. “The same Kyle Gibson who just gave up 4 runs and 10 hits in 5 1/3 innings against Detroit last week?”, Grey thought to himself. But he knew better than to question the most respected donkey in all the land.

It’s the time of season where everyone outside of the top 20-25 starting pitchers become expendable in shallower leagues. Gibson will be an ideal streaming target in those leagues as he again faces the Tigers in Detroit on Friday; Streamonator loves this match up just as much as the grand old donk. I wouldn’t be excited to start Gibson for his following three starts in Boston, at home against the Nationals, and in Cleveland, but they aren’t the worst match ups. Then his last two juicy match ups will come against the Royals and Tigers once again. Don’t doubt the death defying donkey’s advice, stream or stash Gibson for this final month.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
 

Not your Grandfather’s Top 100 Starting Pitchers…

When the robots finally take over the world and the rest of us have fallen, one last sentient being will remain on the planet taming and ruling over the machines: Grandpa-Donk. Until that time we must do our best to live in harmony with the androids. Don’t give the bots reason to overthrow humanity during your lifetime, let it be your children’s problem.

For fantasy baseball purposes, it’s that time of year to start leaning heavily on artificial intelligence. The sample of data available for Rudy’s mechanical offspring to crunch grows larger by the day. The rest of season player rater and streamonator are functioning like the well lubed machines they are. The top 100 starting pitchers for the remainder of this year will strongly weigh these robotic opinions as most pitchers only have 7-8 regular season starts left; match ups are of the utmost importance from here on out. Speaking of the bots, is there something in rest of season player rater’s pocket or is he just happy to see Andrew Heaney?!

365bet 足球比分直播The player rater has Heaney ranked as the #27 starting pitcher for the rest of the season. I did a double take when I saw the large rusty shaft protruding from player rater’s nether regions at the mention of Andrew Heaney. Looking closer, it makes some sense: Heaney threw two above average outings against the stacked Astros lineup in July before hitting the IL with shoulder soreness. He then came back strong Saturday with an abbreviated outing in Boston against a struggling, but still loaded Red Sox lineup. His swinging strike rate is up over 13% in his 49 2/3 innings this season with 58 strike outs, plus he’ll face the White Sox twice and maybe the Rangers twice over the next three weeks. Heaney’s arm should be fresh at this point, since he’s been hurt ALL season, so pick him up and trust fall into rest of season player rater’s cold, rigid, arm-like metallic stumps.

Here’s some more players rest of season player rater and Donkey both like for the stretch run…

Please, blog, may I have some more?